Price Action & Technical Analysis /+0.4
Tesla broke out of a three-month range on heavy volume and is holding above the $338 pivot, pointing to likely momentum follow-through early in today’s session.
Monday’s close at $339.03 came on 36 M shares vs. 50-day average 31 M, signalling real conviction behind the move rather than a thin liquidity spike.
RSI 56-60 leaves room before overbought exhaustion, and MACD remains above zero with an expanding histogram, implying bullish inertia can persist intraday.
Premarket prints are sitting just above Monday’s VWAP ($340.6) inside a tight 0.4 % range, suggesting dip-buyers are defending the breakout line; risk is a quick flush only if $338 fails.
Fundamental & Financial Analysis /-0.6
Collapsing profit growth and a 190× P/E make the stock fundamentally stretched and vulnerable to any hint of risk-off flows.
Net income fell 52 % YoY and automotive sales dropped 8 %, yet the valuation sits near $1 T with a P/E ≈ 190—disconnect invites mean-reversion sell pressure.
Gross margin compression to 17.9 % (from 18.2 %) and free-cash-flow decline to $3.6 B underscore deteriorating operating leverage.
Morningstar fair-value of $210 implies ~38 % downside; any macro jitter can refocus traders on the valuation gap intraday.
Recent News & Market Sentiment /-0.2
Robotaxi timeline headlines add optimism, but prevailing “fear” reading (39) and a consensus price target below spot temper enthusiasm.
Elon Musk’s confirmation of public Robotaxi access in September is a longer-dated positive, unlikely to juice today’s tape beyond the already-priced breakout.
Aggregated social sentiment shows retail “negative” bias even as 9.6 % hold the stock—ripe setup for profit-taking on any wobble.
Analyst median target $303 (-10 %) vs. spot $340, while 9 Sells vs. 18 Buys keep overhang alive despite Wedbush’s outlier $500 call.
Catalysts & Competitive Landscape /-0.5
BYD overtaking Tesla in global BEV sales and Cybertruck’s <10 % capacity utilisation amplify execution worries that can trigger intraday downticks.
Q2 deliveries: BYD 606 K vs. Tesla 385 K, first-ever European market share loss—headline risk if referenced by morning news shows.
Cybertruck deliveries ~5 K vs. 50 K quarterly capacity target raises fears about scaling new products; traders often fade hype when hard numbers disappoint.
Energy-storage growth is real but not large enough (yet) to offset automotive slowdown for today’s valuation lens.
Macroeconomic Context /-0.3
Sticky 2.9 % core inflation, 4.25-4.50 % Fed funds and recession rumblings keep high-beta growth names under pressure when bond yields tick up intraday.
July payroll miss (73 K) and Zandi’s “precipice of recession” comment heighten sensitivity to today’s data releases; any upside surprise in PPI could spike yields and hit TSLA fast.
Jackson Hole (next week) overhang means funds are trimming duration-sensitive growth risk, evidenced by institutional ownership slipping to 48.6 %.
Historically, growth stocks lag on days when real rates rise; 10-yr trading above 4.40 % pre-open signals that backdrop.
Actionable Insights /-0.24
Today’s blended read tilts moderately bearish—initiate a tactical intraday short in TSLA with a stop above $344 and a target near $332.
While Monday’s breakout was technically clean, the broader backdrop is fragile: valuation extremes (190× earnings) sit beside shrinking profits, BYD’s market-share coup, and a macro tape where sticky inflation keeps yields elevated. Sentiment remains fearful despite price strength, and analysts’ median target sits well below current levels, giving day-traders a clear justification to sell strength. With premarket holding just over the $338 pivot, a failure to hold that level could spark rapid long liquidation as momentum algos flip direction. Risk is capped via a tight stop above yesterday’s high, while reward benefits from air-pocket support gaps created by the steep two-week run.
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