Price Action & Technical Analysis / +0.2
After an 8 % flush, TSLA sits on a well-watched $301 support with neutral RSI, setting up a possible reflex pop, but the primary trend is still down.
Thursday’s 2×-average-volume drop pushed price to the lower Bollinger band and May trend-line support, a zone that has sparked intraday rebounds before.
Pre-market prints are 1 % higher and 5-min futures show higher lows, while RSI 54 and rising OBV hint at short-covering potential toward $310–312.
The 20/50-EMA bear cross and descending channel ceiling at $315 limit upside, so the technical edge is only mildly positive.
Fundamental & Financial Analysis / -0.6
Collapsing margins and revenue contraction, hidden by once-off credits and Bitcoin gains, argue for continued de-rating pressure even on an intraday basis. Break above two-year channel and strong volume confirm bull trend.
Q2 automotive revenue –16 % YoY and operating margin 4.1 % confirm structural earnings erosion that yesterday’s sell-off only began to discount.
Regulatory-credit income plunged 51 % YoY with a complete phase-out looming; Tesla loses a key profit lever just as cap-ex tops $9 B.
Valuation remains extreme at 74× EBITDA and 176× PE, leaving little room for bad news and inviting further multiple compression.
Recent News & Market Sentiment / -0.4
The news cycle is dominated by downgrades and “steepest sales drop in a decade” headlines, overshadowing Ark’s dip-buying and keeping sentiment bearish.
Wedbush, Baird and others publicly blasted Musk’s vague guidance, driving a spike in negative financial-media coverage overnight.
Analyst skew: 33 Hold/Sells vs. 6 Strong Buys; average target now below spot, denting confidence in bounces.
Social-media sentiment tracker shows 61 % negative posts; 1-day 25-delta put-call skew widened to –7 vol points, signalling traders bracing for more downside.
Catalysts & Competitive Landscape / -0.2
Imminent EV-tax-credit expiry and price-cut pressure from rivals outweigh distant upside from robotaxi and cheap-model stories..
September credit sunset is already prompting talk of a Q4 demand cliff, a narrative likely to weigh intra-day.
Competitive cuts from BYD/GM announced overnight highlight intensifying margin compression.
Robotaxi pilot and Supercharger licensing lack near-term revenue proof and are unlikely to shift today’s flows.
Macroeconomic Context / -0.1
Sticky core CPI and 10-yr yields above 4.4 % keep the macro tape unsupportive for richly valued growth names like Tesla..
June core CPI uptick postpones Fed-cut speculation, pressuring duration-sensitive tech multiples.
Services PMI strength but manufacturing contraction stoke stagflation chatter, leading to defensive rotation in futures this morning.
No scheduled Fed catalyst today to offset risk-off bias, so macro remains a mild headwind. Open a 3x-leveraged SHORT position in TSLA, to be closed at today’s close.
Actionable Insights / -0.2
The composite bias favors a tactical short in TSLA today, exploiting lingering post-earnings selling pressure before any oversold rally gains traction.
Yesterday’s high-volume plunge exposed the market’s first real reckoning with Tesla’s margin decay; overnight downgrades and social-media negativity suggest sellers remain in control. Pre-market strength into $308–310 offers an attractive fade against the descending-channel cap at $315, with a stop just above that level to contain squeeze risk. As sticky inflation keeps rates elevated and competitive EV price cuts hit the wires, the crowd’s willingness to “buy the dip” should stay muted, opening room for TSLA to probe $295–297 support by the closing bell.
Disclaimer: The information provided by Finn is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Finn and its affiliates are not registered investment advisors or broker-dealers. All investment decisions are made at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We are not liable for any financial losses or damages resulting from the use of our content or services.