Price Action & Technical Analysis / +0.3
Tesla has broken out on heavy volume with still-moderate RSI readings, tilting the very-short-term tape higher despite proximity to a crowded resistance shelf.
Tuesday’s close above the August high ($348.98) and atop all major moving averages confirms a textbook trend-continuation breakout, while pre-market prints hold the gain.
Volume was 35 % above the 10-day average, signalling real demand rather than a low-liquidity pop.
Momentum gauges are mixed (RSI 63 supportive, but stochastics 90 overbought), so the edge is bullish but not euphoric, warranting intraday profit targets.
Fundamental & Financial Analysis / -0.4
Rapid margin erosion, falling deliveries and a 175 × PE create an unfavourable risk-reward backdrop that can spark selling on any wobble.
Q2 operating income collapsed 42 % y/y and would be negative without shrinking regulatory-credit revenue.
Inventory has risen to $14.6 bn, pointing to demand softness despite aggressive price cuts.
The share price is ~95 % above several intrinsic-value models and far above the $312 analyst consensus, inviting “sell the rip” reflexes.
Recent News & Market Sentiment / +0.2
Headlines around robotaxi expansion and Musk’s bullish FSD comments keep social-media buzz positive, supporting dip-buyers for today.
Goldman Sachs note on robotaxi TAM and Musk’s “2-3× safer than human” tweet have dominated overnight newswires.
Options flow shows the 29-Aug $350 calls as the most-traded line, reflecting speculative upside bets.
Despite bearish analyst targets, the sheer pace of the three-day rally is feeding FOMO rather than caution in retail channels this morning.
Catalysts & Competitive Landscape / +0.2
Near-term catalysts (robotaxi rollout, EV tax-credit pull-forward) outweigh competitive headwinds on a 24-hour horizon.
Austin robotaxi geofence doubled to 170 sq mi, offering a fresh narrative and photo-ops that traders latch onto.
Imminent expiry of the $7,500 U.S. credit is likely to keep order-flow headlines upbeat through quarter-end.
Bears’ talking points (BYD share gains, credit-revenue cliff) are structural and unlikely to trigger an immediate tape reversal today.
Macroeconomic Context / +0.1
Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole pivot lends a tail-wind to high-beta growth names like Tesla, though sticky inflation tempers the boost.
Fed funds futures now price a 94 % chance of a September cut, compressing discount rates and mechanically supporting long-duration equities intraday.
Weak payroll print reinforces the “softening economy = easier Fed” trade that has lifted the Nasdaq pre-market.
Core CPI at 3.1 % limits the scope of easing, keeping the macro assist modest rather than explosive.
Actionable Insights / +0.08
With a slight composite edge to the upside, initiating a cautious intraday long position is favoured.
Тesla’s tape has just confirmed a multi-week breakout with volume and still-non-extreme momentum readings, while upbeat robotaxi/FSD headlines and a dovish macro tone provide incremental buyers on dips. Although deteriorating fundamentals and nose-bleed valuation warn that the longer-term risk skew is down, such factors rarely derail a fresh technical thrust within the same session—especially when options flow and retail chatter lean bullish. The plan is to enter near $349-350 (prior breakout pivot), place a protective stop under $345 (yesterday’s VWAP cluster/20-min EMA), and target $355-357 where the next resistance confluence sits, capturing ~1.5 % upside for the day while keeping risk tightly defined should profit-taking materialise.
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